A recent report by energy expert Robert Bryce reveals that the United States is not constructing enough high-voltage transmission capacity to facilitate the much-anticipated "energy transition" from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The successful execution of this transition relies heavily on a substantial expansion of the grid. However, Bryce highlights that the prohibitive costs and declining rate of capacity additions are rendering this transition increasingly unlikely.
"America isn't building anything close to the amount of high-voltage transmission capacity that the wind promoters, solar advocates, and spreadsheet jockeys claim is needed," said Robert Bryce (.com).
Bryce, a Texas-based author, journalist, podcaster, film producer, and public speaker, specializes in energy policy. He has authored several books, including Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy, and the Real Fuels of the Future. Much of his work has been dedicated to exposing the challenges associated with wind and solar power as primary energy sources for both the U.S. and the world.
According to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy, facilitating this transition would necessitate the construction of 47,300 gigawatt-miles of new power lines by 2035 or "a 57% growth in today’s transmission system." Based on Bryce's calculations detailed in his report, "given that the current grid has about 240,000 miles of high-voltage capacity, that would require building roughly 136,000 miles of new capacity." This suggests that the U.S. would need to average more than 12,000 miles of new high-voltage power lines each year.
In his report, Bryce uses data from C Three Group to demonstrate that "about 1,677 miles of new high-voltage capacity was added annually to the grid between 2008 and 2023." This implies that there is a need for at least a seven-fold increase in transmission construction through 2035. However, escalating costs and logistical challenges suggest this might be difficult to achieve. The cost of constructing new transmission lines has been rising sharply in recent years. According to Bryce, "each mile of new high-voltage capacity added to the grid in 2023 cost about $3.95 million." He notes that "that’s nearly triple the per-mile cost recorded in 2008." Bryce further cites Jean Reaves Rollins, C Three’s president and founder, who attributes "a big chunk" of the surge in costs "to the soaring cost of acquiring right of way and dealing with permits and regulatory compliance."
Bryce also quotes Rollins expressing skepticism about the construction of significant quantities of new greenfield transmission in the upcoming years. One example illustrating this complexity is the installation of a 345kV substation, which can take from three to five years to build due to extensive manpower and equipment requirements.
After careful analysis of all available data, Bryce concludes that "These facts indicate that the 'energy transition' to a grid mainly powered by far-flung wind and solar projects will not happen." He argues against spending hundreds of billions of dollars on building a grid designed to accommodate low power density, weather-dependent renewables like wind and solar. Instead, he advocates for building high-power-density, weather-resilient generation that can exploit our existing grid.
