Texas and other parts of the U.S. face an elevated risk of energy emergencies in extreme conditions for the upcoming winter. In a new report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) says that Texas is at higher risk of insufficient electricity supplies this winter than last year.
In its 2023–2024 Winter Reliability Assessment, NERC found that Texas' risk has increased due to robust load growth that is not being met by corresponding growth in dispatchable resources. "Electricity demand in Texas rises sharply as extreme cold temperatures add to winter operating challenges and energy shortfall risks", the report details.
According to the Energy Alliance, over the past years there has been a lack of growth of reliable or dispatchable generation resources in Texas. "Since 2007, the share of renewables in ERCOT has increased from 3% to 31%", they say, predicting that "unreliable renewable generation will continue to dominate the Texas market, with 99% of all new generation through 2026 coming from wind and solar."
The Energy Alliance calculated that investors have pumped into renewable energy an impressive amount in Texas: "Investors have poured more than $66 billion into renewable generation in Texas chasing after more than $26 billion of federal, state, and local renewable energy subsidies." The explanation for this trend? Renewable energy subsidies make investment more profitable and less risky than investment in natural gas, nuclear, and coal generation.
Several bills proposed during the regular session at the Texas Legislature aimed to reduce renewable energy subsidies which are distorting the Texas grid. One prominent example was SB 1752 proposed by Senator Bob Hall. According to Bill Peacock, policy director of the Energy Alliance, Hall's bill would eliminate many subsidies benefiting both traditional generators and renewables - these subsidies were leading towards a near collapse of Texan electric grid. Despite these initiatives though, none passed as legislation made minimal moves towards addressing problems brought on by renewable energy subsidies.
NERC reports that more thermal generation will be offline this winter in Texas. This is largely due to the increase in thermal units planned to operate under a summer-only availability schedule; a loss of 1,283 MW of winter-rated capacity is expected.
Increased risk of shortages could stem from the rapid growth of solar generation in Texas and its unavailability during emergency conditions. NERC's study states that "solar generation is not available to serve peak demand, making the system dependent on wind generation and dispatchable resource availability to serve load."
However, reliance on wind power for peak demand has been inconsistent for the Texas grid. Bill Peacock noted that during Winter Storm Uri when Texan grid suffered days-long blackout, "Wind was operating at 16.8 percent of its capacity—still much lower than natural gas and coal—but supplying only 8.2 percent of the 65,256 megawatt load that would soon shut down the system."
