Texas has fewer prison inmates than at any time in the 21st century as in 2020 the prison population dropped from 140,819 to 120,873, according to a Texas Legislative Budget Board report issued in January.
The state report also said the adult prison population is “projected to increase and then remain stable for fiscal years 2021 to 2026 and to remain, on average, 0.7% below the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) internal operating capacity.”
“The January 2021 correctional population projections indicate the adult state incarceration population will increase and remain close to the operating capacity through fiscal year 2026,” the report states. “The juvenile state residential population will remain within operating capacity through fiscal year 2026.”
Texas’ juvenile prison population is expected to remain, on average, 34.3% below operating capacity during the projection period.
Derek Cohen, director of Right on Crime at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, is not sure if this trend can continue.
“Yes and no," Cohen told the Lone Star Standard. "From February 2020-February 2021, Texas prison populations have dropped 16%, that’s a change by over 22,000 inmates. Jail populations have likewise diminished. These drops are due to the process delays arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. As court processes slowly return to normal, the looming question is how much of those reductions are ‘pent-up demand’ for prison space and will regress to the mean over time or are permanent. All that said, a 22,576 year-over-year in unprecedented, leaving many prison beds empty.”
Cohen said the pandemic is a key element in the decline.
“There is the cascading effects from COVID,” he said. “Police are making fewer arrests, counties are bonding out far more of the accused, and jury trials just haven’t been occurring. Chief Justice (Nathan) Hecht estimates that it will take upward of three years to fully clear out the backlog.”
Also playing in a role in the inmate decline is the state’s investment in treatment and diversion with a focus on criminal justice reforms, according to state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston). Whitmire is the chairman of the Senate Criminal Justice Committee.
The Texas Department of Criminal Justice has closed or idled 11 units since 2011, including two in 2020. In addition, six were sold. Texas has 100 prison facilities on 83 properties on 124,000 acres. The state also uses a private facility to hold inmates, according to the Panhandle Times.
Cohen said it would be presumptive to make plans for further reductions.
“It would be rash to simply mothball all the prison capacity that isn’t being used at the moment,” he said. “As I said, we still do not know how the population will normalize. A better suggestion would be to reallocate some of these beds for special populations [such as] mental illness, substance abuse, etc. This would allow inmates at facilities less equipped to handle those special needs to transition to an environment more geared toward getting them rehabilitated.”
There are fewer people in Texas prisons, and not just inmates. The number of guards has declined, with some facilities reporting drastic shortages of staff. That poses risks to both guards and inmates, especially at prisons with a reputation for violent and dangerous inmates, such as the Barry B. Telford Unit in the northeast corner of the state.
Cohen said he would advise legislators to look ahead when making decisions on prison space. The landscape that exist today might not be in place in a few years.
“It is definitely safe to close some or to take some of the unused capacity offline," he said. "But some needs to be kept in reserve and still other excess capacity should be converted to correctional settings shown to reduce recidivism in special populations.”
