A former hedge fund manager argues that based on data, the COVID-19 pandemic is starting to fizzle out in the U.S.

The CEO of Empire Financial Research in an Aug. 25 op-ed piece said that cases of COVID-19 are falling in the U.S. and claimed that “herd immunity,” while being mischaracterized by media, is an inevitable outcome where the virus reaches a break point in most of the world.

“The news continues to be good from across the U.S.," Whitney Tilson said in the op-ed. "Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all trending downward. It’s even possible that our daily new cases may fall below Europe’s if current trends continue.”

Tilson, an investor, author, publisher and founder of Empire Financial Research, contended that massive economic-crippling business shutdowns are unnecessary as well as ineffective and used excepts from several studies.

The piece indicated that as more people become infected, the virus may be running out of steam. 

Herd immunity is the idea that through vaccination or infection, in which a person who survives builds up immunity to the virus, the spread of the disease slows even for those not immune. One way is to keep the most vulnerable people to the virus (elderly) isolated while allowing young healthier people to circulate freely and contract the virus and build up antibodies called "collective immunization." Under this theory you could possibly cut COVID deaths in the long run and smother the virus outbreak.

However, a report in the New York Intelligencer said there is one flaw. When you have a large number of elderly people in a rest home staffed by younger people, you can’t shield older people from an outbreak.

The Empire Financial Research article displayed charts showing a downward spiral in hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S. and Canada from July to August of this year. Between April and the month of August, another chart showed a sharp decrease in deaths.

Tilson cited a New York Times article that states there are two competing theories for the decline. In the first theory, the claim is made that restrictions are working, wearing masks, closing bars, gyms, theaters, with a warning that a spike could reoccur with business re-openings.

Tilson then cited Adam Patinkin, who called this theory “bunk.” Patinkin said social distancing has little to do with the number of cases being determined by a virus “break point.”

“The benefit of social distancing to me has nothing to do with reducing the disease break point," Patinkin said, as cited by Tilson. "Nothing at all. Instead, it has to do with reducing initial viral loads. If we have most of our interactions outside, or moderately social distanced, I’d bet health outcomes end up better because the initial viral load goes down. But it won’t reduce the number of people who end up being infected. The math just doesn’t work that way.”

Researchers are finding a similar pattern in Europe as in the U.S., according to Patinkin.

“Fatality levels remain extremely low in Europe and have not seen a commensurate surge as more cases in young people are asymptomatic (no symptoms) and are being identified via more testing and due to better treatments,” Patinkin said.

As an example, Tilson said on Aug. 24 only one death was reported from the virus in the U.K.

Tilson cited Patinkin's explanation that states like Florida and New York, formerly hot spots for the COVID-19 virus, will see a smaller fraction of fatalities per capita population because of better policies, treatments and other factors.

Attitudes toward the pandemic are changing in countries like England, Patinkin noted. Hysteria over coronavirus is rated the most dangerous development and a countrywide lockdown is being seen as a huge mistake, he said. In addition, U.K. government health advisors say that missing school is a greater danger to children than the COVID virus.   

“It’s the process of (virus) burning out," Patinkin said. "This is exactly what epidemiology 101 tells us should happen.” 

Additionally, Tilson also cited a Bloomberg Opinion column by Faye Flam that states the odds of catching the coronavirus on an airline flight remain slim. The way air is circulated and renewed on an airliner makes the chance of getting the virus from someone not in your immediate vicinity small, he noted.

Flam noted that a researcher for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimated the chances are about one case among 4,300 passengers for a two-hour flight, with the odds one in 7,700 if you leave a middle seat empty.

The article did say this estimate had not been peer-reviewed.

Johns Hopkins University of Medicine offers a daily state-by-state count of reported COVID-19 cases.